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01 Feb 2006
This is a joint posting; John Levine is posting it to his blog and Paul Hoffman is posting it to his blog. Susan Crawford, a new member of the ICANN board, asked about auctions and lotteries for new gTLDs. Lots of people responded in the comments, and then the two of us kind of took over. We have now stopped, and are posting here. The two of us agree on some things, and disagree on others. We agree that:
The two of us disagree on the best way to make these bunches of 50 gTLDs appear. John sees two routes to selecting TLDs. For TLDs intended to make money, the best approach is an auction, with the N highest bids getting to pick their N favorite domain strings, and the money given away to a suitable worthy cause, not ICANN. Other people have made more detailed proposals to deal with the obvious trademark issues, e.g., only IBM can pick .ibm but they still need a winning bid to do so. As Paul notes below, ICANN's beauty contest has picked losers, and a lottery tends to turn into auctions where the lottery winners keep the auction proceeds. Possible approaches include a separate lottery for five or ten names for which only non-profits can apply, giving virtuous bidders funny money they can use in the auction, as was tried in the PCS frequency auctions in the US. John doesn't have any great confidence that these will work, but if the auction process can be made simple and predictable enough, it should be possible to try one approach this year, another next year, and so on until one turns out to work. Paul believes that there is no way to predict which TLDs might be "best". The track record so far is abysmal. Having an auction might get people to think harder about which gTLDs would work best, but it is completely unclear who should profit from the auction. Instead, a lottery based on the desires of the organizations who qualify to be gTLD owners could be designed to get a wide variety of TLDs, with some organizations becoming big winners and the rest having ones that don't cost much to run. A lottery would prevent ICANN from making unnecessary money on the system, and would open the market to many companies who might otherwise be locked out. Both of us agree that once the 50 gTLDs are assigned, there will be a lot of buying and selling of assets, regardless of what the rules for the auction or lottery say. Just live with it; that is how big business works. But the values of the new gTLDs will be much lower than might be expected because there are so many of them, with maybe another 50 or 100 a year later.
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